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svx_biker, Risky - der Pessimist

Lonza: Die Sicht von ML

Startbeitrag von Risky - der Pessimist am 26.07.2004 13:44

• Neutral. There should be recovery potential into '05 if the new US biotech capacity fills up as planned, but risks remain and visibility is incredibly low.

• Valuation is highly uncertain in our view given profit volatility. If our '05 forecasts are right, valuation looks OK to us - P/E 13, EV/EBITDA 8.0x, div yield 2.3%, free cash flow 6.3% x'05E.

• New CEO, Stefan Borgas (ex BASF) made a good first impression. But it's clear there is no big-bang solution to Lonza's problems. Key is top line growth to refill under-utilised 2000L and 5000L capacity. Results of Borgas' strategic review due January 2005.

• H1 '04 net income CHF70m below our CHF83m forecast, down 42% on H1 last year. Major shortfall in Biotech part of Exc Synthesis & Biotech. Organic Fine & Perf Chems ahead. Polymer Chems in line.

• Lonza remains committed to minimum operating profit CHF225m FY '04.Needs much better H2, which appears to come from new US biotech plant.

• We've downgraded EPS by 20% for '04, 15% for '06. Reflects low utilisation in 2000L & 5000L capacity. Capacity utilisation in 2000L & 5000L biotech plants only 25%. Taking much longer to refill plants than expected post last year's product losses. More progress in 5000L than 2000L. Could be write-offs.

• New US bio expansion onstream. Expect significant profit contribution in 2005. We estimate CHF65m.

• Exclusive Synthesis market is tough, but Lonza is doing better given cost cutting. Pipeline healthier too.

• Org Fine & Perf Chems and Polymer Intermediates both doing OK. Not expecting any extra raw material squeeze in H2. Usual specialty chem challenges here.

• Finances. Interest cover is healthy at 8x '04 (which should be trough profit year). But we now have some concerns that Lonza might start investing in growth capex and never resume its earlier cash generation.


...die ganze Studie gibt es hier:
[www.cwes01.com]

Antworten:

26. Juli 2004

von svx_biker - am 28.12.2006 20:44
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