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Balancing inflation and growth - Where is the US headed?

Startbeitrag von Hammer am 27.05.2006 16:58

ein paar interessante artikel zu den themen wachstum, inflation, consumer spending und housing market, allerdings in english:

Extract: If inflation does keep rising, it will be important to remember another basic policy rule: the number of policy targets must be equaled by the number of policy instruments, and where a single instrument confronts multiple targets, it must be aimed at the target it can best attain. Monetary policy alone cannot produce both price stability and growth, and it works best when aimed at price stability. If the Fed has to choose between maintaining stable prices and maintaining growth, it will choose price stability. That is the lesson of the post-Volcker era “Great Moderation” of inflation and volatility, and Ben Bernanke knows it well. He literally wrote the books on the policy lessons of that era and on the policy lessons of the Great Depression. The former said keep inflation low and stable, in a range of 1 to 2 percent, while the latter said, avoid deflation. Not always easy, but worth the effort.
Full article: [www.aei.org]

Extract: The risk of housing being overpriced may rise as long-term interest rates move up. Econometric analysis reported in this Outlook suggests that, should house prices continue to rise in 2006 at the speed they did last year and long-run rates to increase as they have in recent months, several large countries (United States, France, Spain) would be at risk of a downturn in house prices.
Full article: [www.oecd.org]

Extract: ``Economic growth is slowing and core inflation is rising beyond the Fed's comfort range,'' said Michael Carey, chief economist at Calyon Corp. & Investment Bank in New York. ``With a new chairman seeking to establish his inflation-fighting credentials, the Fed is going to have to talk tough on inflation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them pause June 29 if they see further signs of weaker growth.''
Full article: [www.bloomberg.com]

Extract: It is in the American housing market that the bear may growl loudest. By borrowing against the surging prices of their homes, American consumers have been able to keep on spending. The housing market is already coming off the boil (see article). If prices merely flatten, the economy could slow sharply as consumer spending and construction are squeezed. If house prices fall as a result of higher bond yields, the American economy could even dip into recession. Less spending and more saving is just what America needs to reduce its current-account deficit, but for American households used to years of plenty it will hurt.
Full article: [www.economist.com]


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