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Obli, sommy, prophecy

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Startbeitrag von prophecy am 04.12.2006 20:30

NEW YORK (AFX) - Wall Street has a secret that nobody really wants to admit: Many are cheering the dollar's slide to near 20-month lows against other major currencies.

The run of weak economic data over the past few weeks has made it increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will be forced to soon cut interest rates. Making matters worse is that the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates when it meets this week. Higher rates increase the value of a currency.

So, why are some on Wall Street excited by the thought of the dollar limping along against the euro? It means everything from higher sales for big multi-nationals, more exports for U.S. companies, and even a boost in tourism.

'We're happy to see the dollar lower even though it is something we'd never admit,' said Peter Dunay, an investment strategist with New York-based Leeb Capital Management. 'So long as there are slow and steady declines in the dollar, and we're not in panic selling, then this is certainly not the end of the world.' The summer saw the Bank of Japan vow to keep interest rates low, which propped up the dollar. Investors also bought the dollar as a safe haven because of unfolding geopolitical jitters, highlighted by tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.

At the time, the euro bought about $1.26 -- compared to the $1.33 it traded at Monday afternoon. The euro has blown past the psychological $1.30 level, and now some currency traders believe that $1.40 could be a possibility.

Triggering the dollar's fall was the Fed's decision in June to put rates on hold after more than two years of hikes. Policymakers have kept rates at 5.25 percent during the last two meetings, and were widely tipped to again leave them unchanged at its Dec. 12 meeting.

Investors are betting through Eurodollar futures that the Fed will cut rates by up to 0.75 percentage point by the end of next year.

'If the euro goes up, you'll start to hear European companies complaining,' said Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase's senior U.S. economist. 'If you're a European-based company, and the euro is rising, your profits will get squeezed unless you can raise your prices. If you're an American company, the competition eases up and you'll have a better time.' And that is just fine for many companies with large overseas business. Companies like McDonald's Corp. has restaurants in more than 119 countries, and foreign sales will help counterbalance any weakness in the United States.

The same can be said for Intel Corp. The world's largest maker of chips used in personal computers sells some $20 billion annually in Europe and Asia, and that's worth more when converting those sales into dollars.

Even smaller companies that don't have overseas operations stand to benefit. European and Asian companies looking for goods and services might more readily turn to a U.S. company to do business because their local currency will go much further.

Though the greenback's decline might be good for corporate profits, there are still lingering concerns it could go too far. A surprise rate cut by the Fed, coupled with rising interest rates in Europe, could trigger a sharp drop in the dollar.

'One of the concerns with the market is will investors be scared to put too much money into U.S. equities if they see currency risk,' Dunay said. 'Right now the stock market continues to gain, and shows its not that concerned.' Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Antworten:

gibts auch eine deutsche Kurzfassung ?? Merci



von sommy - am 05.12.2006 06:16
Die Amis sind froh um Ihr Billige Dollar so können Sie ihre Ware günstig ins Ausland verkaufen !!
Aus meiner Sicht aber ein Kurzfristiges Denken.

von Obli - am 05.12.2006 06:23
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