@Stoney

Startbeitrag von Quotes am 10.01.2007 09:37

Willst dich von deinen EUR/CHF Call trennen ? ;-)

Antworten:

Ja....aber nur mit Gewinn! :-)

von stoney - am 10.01.2007 09:42
schon gesehen, mein EP @0.05, muss noch etwas Geduld haben :-)

von Quotes - am 10.01.2007 09:51
Higher Rates Won't Strengthen CHF

UBS has revised higher its call for the Swiss National Banks's (SNB) 3-m Libor target. This follows a series of solid business sentiment indicators into the end of '06, and the continuously improving Swiss labour market situation. We now forecast the SNB to lift its 3m Libor target rate to 2.5% by the end of H1 '07, i.e. two rate hikes of 25bp in each of the upcoming quarterly SNB announcements (March and June 2007). In addition, expect the SNB to increase rates by another 25bp in March '08.


Having said this, we don't expect the SNB to become very aggressive at a time when there are only very tentative signs of increased inflation in Switzerland according to the SNB's official forecasts. However, our economists also argue that the SNB remains expansive from a relative point of view. Hence, we expect the SNB to proceed with its "normalisation process", preventing monetary conditions from easing in light of above trend GDP growth rates.


Given that the SNB mirrors any upcoming ECB tightening move, we don't expect the bank to compromise CHF funding. Similar rate expectations are already fully accounted for in CHF money market rates.


Besides a widening EUR-CHF rate differential, EURCHF has also been driven by the strong performance of (global) stocks. Typically during times of positive global growth expectations, domestic money flows are allocated abroad which hurts the CHF. However, when combining this effect with the widening EUR-CHF rate differential we actually find that EURCHF is slightly overvalued. While we believe that there is a higher chance that the cross stays in its 1.5800-1.6200 range for now, we nevertheless advise to buy dips.



von Apollyon - am 10.01.2007 10:00
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