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Warrants.ch Warrants-Talk
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Erster Beitrag:
vor 11 Jahren, 5 Monaten
Letzter Beitrag:
vor 11 Jahren, 5 Monaten
Beteiligte Autoren:
Hama, twl3027, PsychoManager

Prognosen für die nächste 20 Tage

Startbeitrag von Hama am 18.02.2007 17:56

....Optionsverfallstag isch vorüber...sehe nun eine kurze Zwischenhausse ;-) für die nächsten 20 Tage...

....mit 7100 im DAX
....mit 9400 im SMI

....denn die Ami-Indizes sind nach wie vor in guter Verfassung...

....mit 13100 im Dow
....mit 1480 im S&P500
....mit 2650 im NDX Composite

....denn politisch und von der Zinsfront her sind keine Störfeuer zu erwarten :-)


Und was meinst du bezüglich den Dollar, im Moment sollten die Bullen nur von einer Abschwächung des Dollars sich "befürchten", scheint demso Charttechnisch wie fundamental auch zu bestätigen.

Möchte euch erinnern dass die Korrektur im Mai 06 und die vom Dezember 06 wegen des Dollars waren.

Geopolitische Sachen lasse man mal Weg, obwohl ich denke dass Bush später für Überraschungen sorgen wird, aber eben dass sind reine Spekulationen von mir, der Dollar hingegen nicht! ;)

von PsychoManager - am 18.02.2007 18:02


Vielleicht zur besseren Verständigung.

Möchte noch hinzufügen dass die Korrektur im Dezember erst anfing, als man circa bei 1.33 war...aber diese werden nach meinem Szenario ganz bestimmt erreicht, ob es dann jedoch weitergeht weiss ich net, für dass muss man abwarten...


von PsychoManager - am 18.02.2007 18:04

...du vergisst auch noch den letzten :-) Sargnagel beim Japsen Topix-Index bei 1700 Punkten....

...ich gehe davon aus, dass der Sargdeckel weggesprengt wird (wie auch beim DAX die 7000) und damit wird dann die Rallye UP sich kfr. verschärfen....

...aber irgend ein Hedger-Pack wird schon noch was auspacken um uns die Rallye zu versauen ;-)

von Hama - am 18.02.2007 18:12
...die Goldbullen meinen es gut mit Gold ;-)


Psychology of Trading Gold and Silver 2007-2009

By Roger Wiegand

February 16, 2007

“Technicals, fundamentals and history tell us the herd will bail out and run for cover at exactly the wrong times, normally on a shorter term basis. The larger question is what happens when gold touches $850-$900 and silver is $50? In our view at these prices the precious metals markets will have only achieved 25% of potential upside. Old experience from 1979-1981 will cause a major PM market exit at our stated beginning highs. We think this will be a time to take profits like the herd but also get ready for the really serious gold and silver rallies.” –Traderrog

Stock Selling and Exit Risk Protection

We’ve done a lot of thinking and checking with others on two crucial points for trading gold and silver. How do we protect our gains when the mainstream stock markets sell-off? Next, when and how severe will the exits become at the magic price levels of $850-$900?

These are very tough questions with no easy answers. First we should examine what constitutes true values for precious metals. Math wizards tell us inflationary adjusted gold should be nearly $2,000 per ounce today when yesterday the April Futures were trading in the $670’s. March silver futures were about $14 while they ought to be inflation adjusted to $23.25.

Technically, gold can hold its monthly channel maintaining the years’ long uptrend with a much lower number back near $500-$550 per ounce. Some analysts even suggest $450 would not be a trend violation. Our forecast high for gold during the first two quarters of 2007 is $740 and silver’s at $15.20. Certainly outside news could prod these prices to the next levels of $850 and $19.95 but we think not until fall of 2007.

The Trading Law of Markets Says They Must Correct for a Rest.

If we go backwards and take a full Fibonacci retracement from our forecast fall gold high we see $550 after 61.8% lower adjustment. This is exactly the time most analysts and traders will throw in the towel for good and seek other markets. In our view this will be the biggest mistake in the entire precious metals rally run.

We saw a BCA chart showing the price of gold with the last 8 years of trading action overlaid on the 1970’s-1980’s gold rally from start to finish. The last 8 years of both cycles are now tracking almost identically. Using our technicals from history and comparing them back 8 years and forward another 6 years, a fantastic group of puzzle pieces is falling into place. The answers are now very clear to us based upon these charts.

Technicals and Cycles Predict Very High Prices

The numbers are saying gold at $3400-$3600 and silver at an astounding $226-$240 which we have difficulty even thinking of yet alone predicting. Technicians have a vast array of tools to figure this stuff out and of course many times they are way off base. What we are saying is if history repeats, and we are firm believers in this notion, those are the numbers ahead of us in the precious metals markets.

May, 2007 Normal Corrections

Our cycle calculations are indicating the May, 2007 selling event for stocks, commodities, bonds and a host of other markets will cause a substantial correction. Some of these markets will sell unexpectedly lower scaring those with money on the line. Gold and silver could as well and this is what BCA’s chart is saying for 2007. We cannot show you the chart as it is copyrighted and we didn’t have time to get print permission but we can certainly tell readers what we observe.

The next big question is this; if gold touches a $740 high this spring do we get a $550 price for this summer or something less extreme? Common sense tells us the largest exit will be near $850 based upon the former high many years ago. A one level Fibonacci retracement from $740 might give us $565-$566 which is also an intermediate price location where gold likes to sit and rest.

Spring 2007 Prices Clarified

With this new information, we are beginning to see perhaps a $740 spring, 2007 high, a retracement back to $565 and a new January, 2008 crank-up rally to $850-$900. This idea would suggest a mild, mediocre, fall 2007 gold move which could be eminently discouraging to gold and silver bugs. As always, just when it appears all is lost, these markets turn on a dime and blast off like a Saturn Rocket.

Measuring time and price on the BCA historical chart, it appears gold will rally from $740 to $3,400 in only the two years of 2008 and 2009. If this is true, and I agree with this cycle data, we are still on page six of a twelve page story. Each page is one year.

Patience is difficult in this business as we all know. Especially for those having big bucks on the line hoping and praying for more longs to pile in. We would suggest taking it slowly, carefully and easily by corralling your risk and placing a very strong emphasis on buying physical precious metals (coins) when the stocks and futures game is non-directional and really messy. The directionless, flat-lined floundering might appear in the May-December, 2007 period which last year was electioneering induced. That one got my blood pressure up as well as the anger of lots of traders. Market manipulators caused it and we think they’ll hit us again in the fall of 2007 when gold and silver could remain technically weaker coming off a very long hot, blah summer.

Always remember the first rule of trading. Don’t lose large amounts of money. Stopped out trades with tiny losses are good trades. Big trades with major losses are pocketbook and retirement destroyers. I would also suggest that those who have traded metals with poor returns or losses to date should not despair. The mother of all gold and silver runs is coming quickly. Be ready to go and be in place when this thing takes off. I will be in middle of the herd running with the rest and providing recommendations on how to stay in the game and win.



von Hama - am 18.02.2007 18:30
nicht zu vergessen: die Chinesen feiern ab heute eine Woche chinesisches Neujahrsfest!
USD/Yuan beachten, schlägt vermutlich voll auf USD, Euro, Yen, und CHF durch.
Aufwertungspotential des Yuan.

von twl3027 - am 18.02.2007 21:35
vor dem Bundeshaus lungern schon ein paar Banker, um Bundesräte weich zu klopfen.
Steuererleichterungen für Heddgefond-Manager müssen her.

von twl3027 - am 18.02.2007 21:42
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