China erwartet Inflation in den USA

Startbeitrag von lapin am 05.08.2009 15:16

Is China signaling that they expect inflation to rise in the near future?

The U.S. Treasury Department indicated that they plan to ramp up sales of inflation-protected bonds, known as TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). TIPS pay out a fixed amount above the change in the consumer price index.

The Wall Street Journal said the action is being initiated to "help fund the nation's growing budget deficit". Could this be a signal that the gov. and fed. are opting to go for "printing more money" to keep the economy (and government) going, and thereby fueling inflation down the road?

Apparently, Chinese officials have specifically said that they will buy more U.S. Bonds, but wanted to favor buying TIPS. Does this not suggest that China is expecting significant inflation to occur sometime in the future?

If there is any creeping inflation, it should show up in long term interest rates. Rising long term yields can reflect perceived rising risk levels, and/or rising inflation ... all of which investors want to be compensated for.

So, has there been any change in long term yields in the past two years?

For the answer, we will look at the 30 year yield chart going back to 2008. This is a weekly line chart of the 30 year bond yields. If you have not been watching yields, you are probably quite surprised by the rise that has occurred since December of 2008. If I were China, I would definitely like to have inflation protection on any bonds I buy now.



Merci lapin !

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Wünsche erfolgreichen Tag !!

good time

von sommy - am 06.08.2009 12:31
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